September月度经济报告:生产订正向上,由半导体制造设备支持;贸易和服务平衡转向"Deficit".

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On September 29, the government released its Monthly Economic Report for September. The assessment of the economic trend remains unchanged from the previous month as recovering moderately, although it is necessary to pay close attention to the situation in the Middle East and the impact of natural disasters . Meanwhile, the assessments for three individual items have been changed. The upward revision was for production, which was raised from "leveling off" to " showing signs of picking up on the whole ." This reflects the strong performance of production machinery, centered on semiconductor manufacturing equipment. There were two downward revisions: public investment was changed from "moving steadily" to "moving firmly," and the trade and services balance was changed from "generally balanced" to " in deficit ." The Monthly Economic Report is the government's official economic assessment compiled by the Cabinet Office every month. Each of the 14 items, such as personal consumption and capital investment, is assigned an assessment phrase, and the overall trend is determined as a synthesis of these. Even slight changes in wording reveal where the government feels progress is being made and where it is concerned. The three items that changed this time are production, public investment, and the trade and services balance. The remaining 11 items—personal consumption, capital investment, exports, corporate profits, employment conditions, and consumer prices—used the same wording as the previous month. Since the overall trend assessment was maintained, the view of the economy as a whole has not changed. However, the content contains both upward and downward factors. Production has increased, but the balance of external demand has been disrupted. This combination is the characteristic of September. The reason for raising the assessment of production is the strong performance of production machinery. In the report, production machinery is described as "picking up recently," with semiconductor manufacturing equipment in particular showing growth. This is against the backdrop of continued global demand for AI-related products. Looking at the figures, the index of industrial production for July fell by 0.2% from the previous month. While it was weak in July alone, the Survey of Production Forecasts, which aggregates the plans of manufacturers, expects a 6.4% increase in August , and a 4.2% decrease in September. The expectation of a large increase in August led to the upward revision of the assessment. There are differences in trends by industry. Transport equipment is showing signs of picking up, and production machinery is picking up. On the other hand, electronic parts and devices were described as "showing signs of stalling in their recovery." Even if AI-related equipment is growing, the same momentum is not necessarily spreading to the parts side. Corporate profit figures remain strong. According to the Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations, ordinary profits for the April-June 2026 quarter increased by 24.6% year-on-year . Manufacturing increased by 57.0%, and non-manufacturing increased by 9.8%. By size, large and mid-sized enterprises saw a 28.9% increase, while small and medium-sized enterprises remained at a 4.4% increase. There is a disparity in the strength of performance. Another major change is the assessment of the trade and services balance. It changed from "generally balanced" until the previous month to "in deficit." The reason is an increase in imports of crude oil and other items from the United States. The report states regarding imports from the U.S. that "mineral fuels have been increasing recently." The background is the situation in the Middle East. Tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have made it difficult to procure crude oil from the Middle East, leading to increased procurement from the U.S. instead. In addition, under the Japan-U.S. tariff agreement, Japan is to make additional purchases of